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TAG Unit 2.5: The Appraisal Process
December 2004
Unit 2.5 (Adobe Acrobat - 257kb)
1. The Appraisal Process
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Overview of the Appraisal Process
The New Approach to Appraisal
Appraisal in Multi-Modal Studies
Treatment of Social Inclusion in the Appraisal Framework
Appraisal Summary Table
Use of the Appraisal Summary Table
Assessing the Overall Value for Money of the Option
Interpretation of the Information in the AST Rows
1.3 Appraising the Achievement of Local and Regional Objectives
1.4 Appraising the Impacts on Problems
1.5 Supporting Analyses
The Distribution and Equity Supporting Analysis
The Affordability and Financial Sustainability Supporting Analysis
The Practicality and Public Acceptability Supporting Analysis
1.6 Distillation Towards the Final Appraisal Summary
Distillation of the Appraisal Information
The Final Appraisal Summary
2. Further Information
3. References
4. Document Provenance
1. The Appraisal Process
1.1 Introduction
1.1.1 This TAG Unit describes the appraisal process. It is structured in the following manner:
- Section 1.2 explains the appraisal
framework, including the Appraisal Summary Table
which is used to assess the achievement of the Government's
objectives for transport (Step 6 Figure 1.1);
- Section 1.3 discusses the ways in which the achievement
of local and regional objectives
may be assessed;
- Section 1.4 discusses ways in which the amelioration
of problems may be assessed;
- Section 1.5 discusses the treatment of the supporting
analyses of distribution and equity,
affordability and financial sustainability, and practicality
and public acceptability; and
- Section 1.6 discusses the process of distilling
the appraisal information towards a final appraisal
summary so that recommendations may be made (Step 10 in
Figure 1.1).
1.1.2
The analyses which should be undertaken to
obtain the entries to the AST are explained in The Environment
Objective (TAG
Unit 3.3), The Safety Objective (TAG
Unit 3.4), The Economy Objective (TAG
Unit 3.5), The Accessibility Objective (TAG
Unit 3.6) and The Integration Objective (TAG
Unit 3.7). Modelling (TAG
Unit 3.1) also includes advice on the methods which should
be used to undertake the environmental impact assessment (Step
7.2 in Figure1.1) and the cost/benefit analysis (Step 7.3).
1.1.3
Since the publication of GOMMMS (now incorporated
into TAG) in March 2000, a supplement has been issued specifying
the treatment of the 10 Year Plan targets in multi-modal study
appraisals. The appraisal of the impacts on 10 Year Plan targets
is to form a further supporting analysis in multi-modal studies.
Supporting Analysis (TAG
Unit 3.8) contains the supplement in full.
1.1.4
Following publication by the Treasury in January
2003 of a revised Green Book, a supplement was issued to clarify
the implications of the new advice. This supplement is incorporated
throughout TAG. Transport Appraisal and the New Green
Book (TAG
Unit 2.7) contains the supplement in full. This TAG unit
has been updated so that the advice given here is consistent
with that given in the supplement. It has also been revised
to reflect the fact that the methods are now applied to a
wider range of transport studies than multi-modal studies.
1.2 Overview
of the Appraisal Process
Figure 1.1

The New Approach
To Appraisal
1.2.1 The New Approach To Appraisal (NATA) was introduced in the Government's white paper A New Deal for Transport. The Approach was developed by the DETR during the 1998 Roads Review for two purposes:
- choosing between different options for solving the same
problem;
- prioritising between proposals; and
- assessing value for money.
1.2.2
NATA has evolved since its original launch in
1998, it is now the basis for:
- appraisal of multi-modal studies;
- appraisal of Highways Agency road schemes and Local Transport
Plans major road and public transport schemes;
- the Strategic Rail Authority's Appraisal Criteria;
- the project appraisal framework for seaports; and
- the appraisal process employed during the development
of the Government's airports strategy
1.2.3
The Approach includes the identification and
assessment of problems, the identification of options, and
the assessment of those options. Throughout this process,
the approach works within the framework provided by the five
objectives of environment, safety, economy, accessibility
and integration set out in A New Deal for Trunk Roads
in England (DETR, 1998). Figure 1.1 gives an overview
of the process.
Appraisal in Transport
Studies
1.2.4
The approach to appraisal to be adopted in
transport studies embraces fully the principles of the New
Approach To Appraisal. Those elements of the New Approach
To Appraisal which are concerned with the identification and
assessment of problems and the identification of options are
discussed in Objectives and Problems (TAG
unit 2.2) and Policy Instruments (TAG
Unit 2.3). The appraisal process has the following four
appraisal 'strands'.
- An Appraisal Summary Table (AST)
that displays the degree to which the five Central
Government objectives for transport (environment,
safety, economy, accessibility and integration) would be
achieved (Step 6.1 in Figure 1.1). It is from this AST that
a judgement should be made
about the overall value-for-money of the option or options
in achieving the Government's objectives. The information
provided in the AST and its more detailed supporting documents
will enable a consistent view to be taken about the value
of the strategies and plans developed for the different
study areas.
- An assessment of the degree to which the
local and regional objectives of the study would
be achieved (Step 6.2 in Figure 1.1) is likely to be of
particular interest to the regional and local authorities,
and the local people. Overlap between this appraisal strand
and the previous one is to be expected.
- An assessment of the extent to which the problems
identified would be ameliorated by the option or options
achieved (Step 6.3 in Figure 1.1) is also likely to be of
particular interest to the regional and local authorities,
and the local people, and additionally the local transport
providers. The changes in conditions which lead to a change
in problem severity will be subsumed by the changes already
taken into account in the assessment of the achievement
of objectives; to that extent, therefore, there will be
multiple-counting between this appraisal strand and the
previous two. However, while changes in problems are only
part of the total effects of an option, they are, arguably,
the most important changes. After all, as the process will
have started off by identifying problems, it seems sensible
to check to see what the option would do for those problems.
- Supporting analyses of
distribution and equity, affordability and financial sustainability,
and practicality and public acceptability (Step 6.2 in Figure
1.1) are likely to be of interest to both Central Government
and the regional and local authorities, as well as the local
people. The local transport providers will be particularly
interested in the impacts on the financial sustainability
of their operations.
Treatment of Social
Inclusion in the Appraisal Framework
1.2.5
Encouraging social inclusion is an explicit
component of the Government's policies on transport (see in
particular Chapter 2 of A New Deal for Transport, DETR, 1998b).
The Appraisal Summary Table provides the framework for assessing
the impact of a particular strategy or plan on objectives
for social inclusion. The Qualitative Impacts column on the
AST may be used to highlight for particular sub-objectives
the effects on different social groups. The supporting analyses
of distribution and equity may be useful in assessing what
these particular impacts are (see paragraph 1.5.3 and those
that follow). Where specific social inclusion objectives are
identified in a particular study, the assessment of the achievement
of local and regional objectives (see paragraph 1.3.1 and
those that follow) also provides a vehicle for highlighting
the impacts of a particular options on social inclusion.
The Appraisal Summary
Table
The top row of the Appraisal Summary Table has
space for:
- the option number;
- the option description, which should be a few key words
of text which summarise the main thrust of the option, along
with a reference to a single page summary of the option,
coupled with another single page (if required) of alternatives
considered and rejected with brief reasons for their rejection;
- a reference to single page summary of the problems on
the do-minimum transport system and a single page summary
of the changes in those problems which would be brought
about by the option; and
- the total cost of the option to Public Accounts (including
investment, subsidy, maintenance, operating and enforcement
costs, and net of any additional revenues accruing to the
public accounts), over the full appraisal period, and discounted
to a present year.
The AST then has space to record the impacts of
the option under the following objectives
and sub-objectives.
environment
- to protect the built and natural environment
- to reduce noise,
- to improve local air quality
- to reduce greenhouse gases
- to protect and enhance the landscape
- to protect and enhance the townscape
- to protect the heritage of historic
resources
- to support biodiversity
- to protect the water environment
- to encourage physical fitness
- to improve journey ambience
safety - to improve safety
- to reduce accidents
- to improve security·
economy - to support sustainable
economic activity and get good value for money
- to get good value for money in relation to impacts on
public accounts
- to improve transport economic efficiency for business
users and transport providers
- to improve transport economic efficiency for
consumer users
- to improve reliability
- to provide beneficial wider economic
impacts
accessibility - to improve
access to facilities for those without a car and to reduce
severance
- to improve access to the transport
system
- to increase option values
- to reduce severance
integration - to ensure that
all decisions are taken in the context of the Government's
integrated transport policy
- to improve transport interchange
- to integrate transport policy with land-use
policy
- to integrate transport policy with other
Government policies.
The AST is shown in tabular form below. This AST, and the
above list of sub-objectives, have been updated in line with
the guidance issued following publication of the revised Green
Book in January 2003, Transport Appraisal and the New
Green Book (TAG
Unit 2.7).
1.2.8
The information presented in the Appraisal
Summary Table is, where possible, based on the results provided
by established techniques to assess the environmental, economic
and social consequences of options. The approach is largely
based on the Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) and the Environmental
Impact Assessment (EIA). The Appraisal Summary Table brings
information from these together to give a fair and unbiased
overall description, without giving prominence to any one
type of effect or to benefits expressed in monetary terms
compared with those which cannot be monetised.
The main impacts in relation to each of the sub-objectives
are summarised in text with any relevant quantified information.
A summary assessment is then given to indicate whether the
impact in each category is generally beneficial or adverse
and how large it is. Where monetary values can be derived,
as in the case of safety benefits or transport user benefits,
the summary assessment uses those values. Where impacts can
be quantified but not monetised, the summary assessment is
quantitative. Impacts that cannot be quantified are assessed
on a (usually) seven point scale (note that these scales are
not necessarily cardinal in nature). Because each seven point
scale measures a very different objective, they cannot be
compared with each other. For more information on this type
of analysis see The Environmental Objective (TAG
Unit 3.3.)
Appraisal Summary Table |
| Option |
Description |
Problems |
Present
Value of Costs to Public
Accounts £m |
|
OBJECTIVE |
SUB-OBJECTIVE |
QUALITATIVE IMPACTS |
QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT |
ASSESSMENT |
| ENVIRONMENT |
Noise |
|
|
net population win / lose NPV £m |
|
Local Air Quality |
|
|
Concs wtd for exposure |
|
Greenhouse
Gases |
|
|
PVB £m |
|
Landscape |
|
|
Score |
|
Townscape |
|
|
Score |
|
Heritage
of Historic Resources |
|
|
Score |
|
Biodiversity |
|
|
Score |
|
Water Environment |
|
|
Score |
|
Physical
Fitness |
|
|
Score |
|
Journey
Ambience |
|
|
Score |
| SAFETY |
Accidents |
|
|
PVB £m |
|
Security |
|
|
Score |
| ECONOMY |
Public
Accounts |
|
Central Govt PVC, Local Govt
PVC |
PVC £m |
|
Transport
Economic Efficiency: Business Users & Transport
Providers |
|
Users PVB, Transport Providers
PVB, Other PVB |
PVB £m |
|
Transport
Economic Efficiency: Consumers |
|
Users PVB |
PVB £m |
|
Reliability |
|
|
Score |
|
Wider Economic
Impacts |
|
|
Score |
| ACCESSIBILITY |
Option
values |
|
|
PVB £m |
|
Severance |
|
|
Score |
|
Access
to the Transport System |
|
|
Score |
| INTEGRATION |
Transport
Interchange |
|
|
Score |
|
Land-Use
Policy |
|
|
Score |
|
Other Government
Policies |
|
|
Score |
Use of the Appraisal Summary Table
1.2.9
The AST relates to one option only. In the
case of a study which involves the development of a transport
strategy (before going on to develop a 'plan' to enact the
preferred strategy), it may be that the 'options' being tested
and appraised are, in fact, alternative strategies - that
is, complete packages of measures which apply to the whole
study area. In these cases, an AST should be produced for
each alternative strategy. It is expected that testing would
also be undertaken to examine the contribution of each of
the main elements of the strategies to the whole. Further
guidance on this is given in the COBA manual. In general,
the discipline of the AST should be maintained for each element,
although it may be that not all objectives need be addressed
in every case. For example, if it was found that a particular
element had a large negative economic value, it may be considered
unnecessary to undertake any further analyses under other
objectives.
1.2.10
It is appropriate for a complete AST to be prepared for each element of a Plan and, where different options are considered for each element, for each option for each element, although some detail may be sacrificed in the early stages. Complete ASTs are required for each transport plan prepared.
1.2.11
Complete ASTs are required - for input to
the distillation process described in Section 1.6 - for each
alternative strategy and plan. ASTs may also be completed,
either fully or partially, for each of the elements of a strategy
or plan which are tested separately, as an aid to deciding
whether they should feature in any of the alternative strategies
or plans.
Assessing the Overall
Value for Money of the Option
1.2.12
The table of impacts in the AST will contain
all the significant costs and benefits of an option (whether
an individual intervention, or overall strategy or plan).
The balance of this information gives the 'overall net value'
of the option. It takes account of all factors, not just the
economic worth, and also takes account of all kinds of impact,
both monetised and non-monetised, and qualitative as well
as quantitative information.
1.2.13
The way in which this 'overall net value' is
derived is by judgement. The
person assessing the 'overall net value' - the 'assessor'
- is required to derive their own estimate by exercising their
own judgement about the relative importance of the various
impacts - the costs and benefits shown in the table of impacts
in the AST. Thus, different people may come to different conclusions
about the 'overall net value' of an option, depending upon
the weights which they attach to the impacts.
1.2.14
In order to make an assessment of value for
money, assessors will need to compare their assessment of
'overall net value' with the cost of the project. Because
affordability to Government will often be a critical factor
in deciding whether options are realistic and practical, it
is recommended that the Cost to Public Accounts, shown in
the first sub-objective under the 'economy' objective (as
well as being repeated at the top right of the AST), be used
for this comparison. This cost will often include a different
range of costs from that defined by the Costs term in the
form of Benefit Cost Ratio in common use prior
to the publication of the revised Green Book in January 2003,
see Transport Appraisal and the New Green Book (TAG
Unit 2.7). Further guidance on this topic is provided
in The Economy Objective (TAG
Unit 3.5).
1.2.15
In forming these judgements, the assessor
may wish to consult the analyses which have been undertaken
to derive the summary information presented in each line of
the AST. Of necessity, the information in the AST is a summary
and may not be readily understood by some readers of the table.
In these circumstances, material underlying the AST may enable
the assessor to gain the necessary understanding.
Interpretation
of the Information in the AST Rows
1.2.16
The assessor also needs to be aware that the
information in the different rows of the AST applies to different
appraisal periods. In what follows, it is presumed that the
transport model, on which much of the information is based,
would represent a typical weekday in the forecast year or
years.
- The noise indicator relates
to an 18-hour period (0600 to 2400) on a typical weekday
in the forecast year. This indicator is the same whether
a single intervention or a strategy or a plan is being appraised.
Usually, information for the year furthest into the future
would be used.
- The local air quality
indicator relates to the whole of the forecast year for
strategies, and to an annual average hour in the forecast
year for individual interventions and plans. Again, information
for the year furthest into the future would be used.
- The climate change indicator represents the net Present Value of Benefits and relates to the 60 year appraisal period. This indicator is the same whether a single intervention or a strategy or a plan is being appraised.
- For overall strategies and plans, the accident
and option value indicators
are Present Values of Benefits, and the
transport economic efficiency indicators are Present
Values of Benefits, which relate to all the days, both weekday
and weekend, over the whole appraisal period, discounted
to a particular present value year. For individual interventions,
these indicators may relate to all the days in a single
forecast year, rather than the full 30-year appraisal period.
- The reliability and severance
scores relate to a typical weekday in a single forecast
year (the later year, if forecasts are produced for two
years). This indicator is the same whether a single intervention
or a strategy or a plan is being appraised.
- The entries under all the other sub-objectives relate
to the point in time at which the intervention, strategy
or plan would be implemented.
1.3 Appraising
the Achievement of Local and Regional Objectives
1.3.1
As discussed in Objectives and Problems
(TAG Unit
2.2), it is not appropriate to be prescriptive about what
local and regional study objectives are set. What is required,
however, is that decision makers agree what these objectives
are, and that they provide an assessment of the performance
of the strategies and plans against those objectives. In order
to ensure that the assessment is not overly judgmental or
impressionistic, the definition of a set of key indicators
is recommended against which to measure the performance of
the strategies or plans.
1.3.2
As noted in Objectives and Problems
(TAG Unit
2.2), it is expected that local and regional objectives
will nest within Central Government's five objectives for
transport. It may be possible, therefore, to structure the
summary of the achievement of these objectives in a similar
manner to the Appraisal Summary Table employed for Central
Government's objectives.
1.3.3
In many instances, it may well be sensible
and cost-effective to use the same indicators for assessing
performance against local and regional objectives as are used
to measure impacts in the Assessment Summary Table. Differences
may arise in that different or supplementary indicators may
be used for some impacts.
1.3.4
The assessment against local and regional objectives
will focus on the performance of the strategies or plans from
the perspective of the stakeholders (travellers, residents,
environmental interests, business interests, planning interests)
within the study area. This focus may give quite different
results from the main analysis in the AST. For example, there
will be particular interest in the impact of strategies or
plans on regional economic activity and employment. Where
the forecast is that region A will make economic gains of
X and that these are implicitly partly or wholly displacement
from region B, this needs to be made absolutely clear in the
supporting documentation, since the regional view and the
national view may then legitimately be different.
1.4 Appraising
the Impacts on Problems
1.4.1
Objectives and Problems (TAG
Unit 2.2) deals with methods of identifying problems,
considering both problems identified by objective measurement
against thresholds, and problems identified from evidence
of public perceptions. These methods will have led, at an
early stage of the process, to the formulation of a statement
of transport-related problems. Methods will have been devised
for displaying and analysing problems such as plots, tables
and text. The problem analysis will have been summarised on
a single sheet for the do-minimum and each of the options.
1.4.2
During the appraisal process, the setting
of thresholds and the appraisal of strategies or plans in
terms of the amelioration of problems can give a sharper focus
to strategy or plan development. It can also help to answer
the question of whether problems are solved or at least addressed,
or whether a number of problems remain. In order to do this,
it will be necessary to find appropriate performance measures
to indicate whether implementation of a strategy or plan moves
the system towards, away from or across a threshold of acceptable
performance.
1.4.3
In considering system trends, both absolute and
relative performance are relevant:
- absolute performance refers to whether conditions are
getting better or worse in relation to current (or base
year) conditions; and
- relative performance refers to whether conditions under
the strategies or plans are forecast to get better or worse
in relation to the do-minimum case against which the strategies
are tested.
As in other contexts in this report, these relative measures
will only be meaningful if the base case is a realistic one
which can genuinely be expected to occur in the absence of
positive policy action.
1.4.4
The appraisal of strategies in terms of amelioration
of problems is not without difficulties:
- there is a conceptual difficulty in suggesting targets
or thresholds for important problems relating to economic
efficiency, such as travel costs and journey times, and
thresholds do not sit comfortably with appraisal practice
which counts all time saving and operating cost changes
whether in congested or uncongested conditions;
- any thresholds may be to a degree arbitrary, and it may
be difficult to 'pitch' thresholds at the right level -
they may not be attainable or too easily achieved; and
- what is or is not regarded as acceptable - where to set
thresholds - is itself a moving target, scientific particularly
in relation to air quality where the evidence on harmful
effects of emissions is changing rapidly.
1.4.5
Overall, whilst assessment of strategies or
plans in relation to their contribution to solving identified
problems is a useful exercise which is important for the decision
making process, it is not a substitute for assessing the extent
to which strategies or plans offer value for money against
objectives.
1.5 Supporting
Analyses
1.5.1
There are three additional groups of issues
which are relevant to the choice of strategy or plan but do
not fit easily within the AST. This is because the AST always
takes the perspective of the overall public interest at a
national level, whereas the following issues reflect a more
focused view of the implications of the proposed strategy
or plan for particular groups of users, non-users, operators
and public sector authorities. These issues are:
- distribution and equity;
- affordability and financial sustainability; and
- practicality and public acceptability.
Since the publication of TAG (formerly GOMMMS) in March 2000,
an additional supporting analysis to assess impacts on 10
Year Plan targets has been specified for multi-modal studies,
as explained in Supporting Analysis (TAG
Unit 3.8).
1.5.2
Each group is dealt with in a separate Supporting
Analysis, which should be provided to the assessor(s) (decision-maker(s))
along with AST, its supporting worksheets, and other information
on the achievement of local and regional objectives and the
amelioration of problems. The following sections outline the
main issues and offer guidance on how to carry out the assessment.
The decision as to how much importance to place on each Supporting
Analysis in choosing between alternative strategies will be
a matter for the assessor(s).
The Distribution
and Equity Supporting Analysis
1.5.3
This Supporting Analysis is designed to show
the distribution of the overall impacts summarised in the
AST, thereby enabling a judgement to be made about the fairness
of the impacts across those affected by the strategy or plan.
1.5.4
The main determinants of the distributional
analyses that can be undertaken will be:
- the spatial basis for the transport model and the degree
of segmentation of the travel demand within the model; and
- the geographical relationship between the interventions
making up the strategy or plan and factors which have a
geographical position, such as the population, designated
areas, water resources, etc.
1.5.5
In the following paragraphs, some ideas are presented about the kinds of distributional analysis which
could be carried out and ought to be considered under each
of the sub-objectives in the AST for which distributional
analyses are appropriate. Advice on distributional issues
can also be found in Transport Appraisal and the New Green
Book (TAG
Unit 2.7).
1.5.6
Noise and local air
quality are related to traffic. Thus, the geographical
distribution of noise and air quality can be displayed at
the level of detail at which traffic information is output
from the transport model. A GIS is a useful tool for relating
changes in noise and air quality to factors such as population,
sensitive areas, and so on.
1.5.7
The geographical distribution of the physical
impacts of the interventions on landscape,
townscape, biodiversity, heritage and water resources
can be displayed using a GIS. The worksheets for these impacts
will provide useful supporting information on the nature of
the resource and its rarity, importance and so on.
1.5.8
Savings in accidents included in the accidents
row of the AST are calculated from changes in personal injury
accidents by severity class (slight, severe, fatal) and type
of road. Tabulations can therefore be prepared to show the
distribution of the changes in accidents by these dimensions.
Plots may also be prepared using a GIS showing the changes
in accidents on individual roads, although not by specific
location.
1.5.9
The transport economic
efficiency worksheet, see The Economy Objective
(TAG
Unit 3.5), provides a breakdown of the Present Values of
Costs and Benefits against the following recipients of costs
and benefits/disbenefits:
- personal travellers by mode (car, bus and coach, rail,
walk/cycle, other);
- personal travellers by purpose (business, consumer);
- freight (road, rail, other); and
- transport system operators (road, rail, bus and coach,
other).
1.5.10
In some cases a significant proportion of the impacts summarised on the AST will fall on non-UK residents. For example, non-UK residents may derive a significant proportion of the user benefits resulting from a public transport scheme providing access to an airport or seaport. In cases where a significant proportion of a scheme's impacts fall on non-UK residents it is important that the Distribution and Equity supporting analyses include a section that separately identifies the impacts on UK and non-UK residents.
1.5.11
The personal traveller benefits/disbenefits may, with some extra computation, be broken down by each of the trip purposes distinguished in the transport model.
1.5.12
All these calculations are conducted on a matrix basis. This means that the incidence of the benefits/disbenefits accruing to each origin or destination zone can be displayed geographically.
1.5.13
Given that the aim of some elements of a strategy or plan may be to stimulate economic regeneration in specific areas, the distribution of the wider economic impacts in this sense will be implicit in the analysis which underlies the entry into the AST.
1.5.14
Analyses of access to the transport system are undertaken on a spatial basis, against the background of car ownership. This analysis therefore provides useful information about the distribution and fairness of an option's impacts.
1.5.15
It is not clear that distributional analyses under the other sub-objectives, although possibly feasible, would add much or be worthwhile in the context of large-scale studies. Their value should therefore be considered carefully before any further analysis is undertaken.
Affordability
and Financial Sustainability (AFS) - Sheet 1 of 3
Affordability
and Financial Sustainability (AFS) - Sheet 2 of 3
Affordability
and Financial Sustainability (AFS) - Sheet 3 of 3
The Affordability
and Financial Sustainability Supporting Analysis
1.5.16 Although the prime criterion against which strategies and plans are to be assessed is overall value for money, as expressed in the AST, Steering Groups should have regard to the financial performance of the strategies or plans. In doing so it will be helpful to distinguish between services provided by the private sector and those provided by the public sector. Supporting Analysis(TAG Unit 3.8) sets out default assumptions regarding the sector providing the different modes. The role of this analysis is to provide an overall assessment of the likely public expenditure required to ensure the provision of the option under consideration.
1.5.17
To aid this process, an Affordability and Financial
Sustainability (AFS) table should be completed for each strategy
or plan. Advice on completing an AFS table is provided in
Supporting Analysis (TAG
Unit 3.8). The tables summarise the financial
impacts on the public accounts (sheets 1 and 2) and on private
sector transport providors (sheet 3), of carrying out one
particular strategy. Impacts are measured relative to the
agreed do-minimum baseline case so they represent changes
in costs and changes in revenues. The entries in the table
include the initial investment costs associated with the option,
the change in ongoing operator costs and revenues and the
financial transfers between the private and public sectors
which are being assumed as part of the option definition.
1.5.18
Any costs which are identical in the do-minimum
and the option, for example the fixed component of highway
maintenance costs on the base network (the 'Group 1' costs
in DMRB Volume 13 Section 1 Part 2 Ch. 9), will not appear
in the AFS table. However, costs which are common to all options
but which do not appear in the do-minimum, such as maintenance
of a new road link which appears in all options, must be included
in the AFS tables for all options.
1.5.19
It is important to note that the AFS table
presents financial impacts.
In addition, it only provides information on operating costs
and revenues for selected years during the appraisal period.
This information is useful for the consideration of affordability
and financial sustainability, since it enables the timing
of costs and the build-up in revenues to be considered. Assessors
should note that the Public Accounts (PA) and the Transport
Economic Efficiency (TEE) table (which supports the AST and
is discussed in depth in The Economy Objective (TAG
Unit 3.5)) provide complementary information.
1.5.20
However, it should be noted that, while the
costs included in the PA and TEE tables should be in real
terms (that is, net of inflation), the costs shown in the
AFS tables should be in cash terms (that is, taking account
of all assumed rates of inflation in the future).
1.5.21
The key question for Financial Sustainability
is the extent to which strategies or plans are self-supporting
from revenues - that is, can revenues cover operating costs
for each year during the operating period; can revenues cover
all costs, including investment costs? Where options would
not be fully self-supporting, this raises the question: what
grant or subsidy would be required to deliver the option?
1.5.22
The costs, revenues and net impact should be
disaggregated by modal groups and, where feasible, by corridor
or operator. Where a strategy or plan is self-supporting overall
but for certain groups the outcome is not self-supporting,
this is important information which needs to be brought out,
since grant or subsidy may still be required if the strategy
or plan is to succeed.
1.5.23
Where grant or subsidy does appear to be needed,
studies will need to consider whether the need for support
would be likely to meet the relevant decision criteria. This
will only be feasible in most cases at a very broad brush
level of analysis, the content of which should be made clear
by the consultants. Further advice on this is given in Supporting
Analysis (TAG
Unit 3.8).
1.5.24
In assessing affordability, it will be necessary
for the Steering Group to take a view as to the likelihood
of public funds being available of the scale suggested by
the total requirement from the two sheets. Advice on affordability
will be provided by Government Offices and the SRA. Where
appropriate, affordability may be improved by the use of possible
parking or road user charges, though this should be considered
as a longer-term option
The Practicality
and Public Acceptability Supporting Analysis
1.5.25
In the past, some studies have been less effective
than they might have been because their recommendations breached
some constraint. Thus strategies or plans may be desirable
but not fundable, or may create a majority of winners with
a minority of uncompensated losers who will form a vocal opposition,
or may be contingent on future funding to complete a network
which cannot be guaranteed, or may be risky against certain
scenarios. There therefore needs to be an overall assessment
of the practicability of each strategy or plan and, where
relevant, what countervailing or complementary measures are
needed to make the strategy or plan practical. Ideally, these
measures should be built into the strategy or plan for testing,
but it is recognised that this may not always be possible.
1.5.26 The following checklist may be helpful in assessing practicability.
- Feasibility. What is the
likelihood of the decision being implemented? Technical
and legal issues need to be considered as well as political
and funding aspects. Consideration of feasibility and phasing
will be interconnected.
- Enforcement. Does the
strategy or plan require other, supporting enforcement measures
to ensure that it is effective? If possible, measures should
be self-enforcing.
- Area of interest ("breadth"
of the decision). What is the scale of the strategy
or plan? How wide a range of activities and how many/what
agencies does it involve? This is not merely a matter of
specifying the geographic extent of the strategy or plan
but of clarifying, for example, the role played by the local
authorities compared to that by other bodies whose activities
are embraced by the strategy or plan.
- Complexity ("depth"
of the decision). Does the strategy or plan involve
numerous factors? Most transport policy decisions are, of
course, complex but the extent varies. Removing traffic
from a town centre, for example, encompasses a wide range
of complex technical issues. Other decisions, for instance
re-directing a cycle route, may be relatively simple.
- Time-scale. What is the
time-scale for the implementation and of the effects of
the strategy or plan?
- Phasing. What is the trade-off
between making at least some kind of decision at an early
stage (even though it may be revised later), as against
postponing it? Early implementation of the elements of the
strategy or plan that can be undertaken quickly will achieve
political (and often public) support. The phasing of funding
must be closely allied to the phasing of other elements
of the strategy or plan, for example, design and construction.
While all the strategy or plan components will need to be
implemented if the original objectives are to be met fully,
some policies can be adopted in stages.
- Partitioning. Can the
strategy or plan be broken down into a series of simpler,
discrete components? For example, could a proposal for area-wide
traffic calming be divided up into smaller, more manageable,
units? Parts of partitioned strategies or plans may not
be implemented over a longer time period because they become
redundant. Progressive pedestrianisation of a town centre
is another illustration of the possible partitioning of
proposals. Whereas the requirement of phasing implies that
one measure follows another, the issue of partitioning merely
means that a measure can be broken into separate components,
but that all will not necessarily be implemented.
- Complementarity. Are the
proposals complementary or are they independent? Some measures
will make a significant contribution only if undertaken
in association with others. Others are quite distinguishable
and separate. Thus, the benefits of complementary measures
undertaken in unison are greater than they are individually
but the joint implementation may be more difficult to achieve.
- Conflicts. Does the measure
conflict with others that have been or are likely to be
made? Is the construction of a new radial route compatible
with bus-priority measures on a parallel road, for instance?
It is particularly important that measures do not conflict:
consistent policies are essential for effective strategies
or plans.
- Political nature of policies
and proposals. How should the strategy or plan relate
to the way that political choices are made? It is important
that technical choices, which are primarily concerned with
the specification of schemes and measures, are not confused
with political choices, relating to policies.
1.5.27
The analysis of practicality should have given
some clues to public acceptability. In addition, public acceptability
will be judged from the responses to the public consultations
in Steps 4 and 11 in Figure 1.1. Again, the outcome of those
consultations should trigger the question "is the strategy
fatally flawed, or are there accompanying measures, which
could help to overcome the problems?". Also, it is essential
to ensure that the public is presented with a base case against
which to assess the alternatives.
1.5.28
As well as the acceptability of the strategy
to the general public, another dimension which must be considered
under this heading is the level of support for the strategy
from the key stakeholders who will be involved in implementation
of the approved strategy. It cannot be stressed too strongly
that this is not an academic exercise; these are studies which
are intended to lead to practical results on the ground. Part
of the task of the consultants and steering groups will be
to create a shared plan to which the key stakeholders have
a genuine commitment. This commitment must be achieved by
involving the stakeholders via the steering group or otherwise,
at every stage of the study from option definition to screening
to strategy definition to final appraisal.
1.6 Distillation
Towards the Final Appraisal Summary
1.6.1
To recap, the appraisal process of strategies
or plans will have four strands:
- the Appraisal Summary Table, from which the overall value
for money in achieving Central Government's objectives for
transport should be derived;
- assessment of the degree to which local and regional
objectives would be achieved;
- assessment of the degree to which problems would be ameliorated;
and
- supporting analyses of the implications for distribution
and equity, affordability and financial sustainability,
and practicality and acceptability.
Distillation of the
Appraisal Information
1.6.2
The AST is, by definition, a summary
of the indicators which are to be used to assess the extent
to which the Government's objectives for transport would be
met by the option. It enables the assessor to gauge the overall
value for money of the option. The
final AST for each of the options should be confined to a
single page and should present the impact on all the sub-objectives
- even where the impact is very small or neutral.
1.6.3
However, to assist in the process of selecting
the preferred option, some distillation may be required to focus
more on the 'important facets'. In this context, 'important
facets' means:
- that information which contributes significantly to the
overall worth of an option; and
- that information which helps the decision-taker distinguish
between options.
1.6.4
This means that the information used to select
the preferred option could vary between studies. For example,
if impacts on heritage were significant and radically different
between options in one study and completely unimportant in
a second study, information about heritage would be required
in the first case but not the second. Thus, the omission of
information under any one sub-objective or objective from
the working ASTs would imply that it was unimportant in the
particular study and that it did not assist in distinguishing
between options, but it would
not imply that the issue had not
been considered. That it was unimportant in the particular
study could be verified by inspection of the final ASTs for
the study which should present the impact on all
the sub-objectives.
1.6.5
Summaries of the information under each of
the other appraisal strands should also be prepared. These
should also fit on a single page to match the AST, and should
be along the following lines.
- The local and regional objectives
should nest within each of the five objectives of Central
Government, and the summary of the option's effectiveness
against these objectives should follow the format of the
AST. If there are more local and regional objectives than
can fit within a single page, a selection should be made,
omitting those for which relatively insignificant impacts
were found for the option concerned.
- The problems for the forecast
year do-minimum case will have been summarised on a single
sheet of paper (with map background) at the outset. For
each option, a further single sheet should be produced which
shows how the do-minimum problems would change with the
option.
- The main points from the Supporting
Analyses should also be summarised on a single sheet
of paper for each option. This means identifying the important
points about the option from each of the Supporting Analyses:
distribution and equity, affordability and financial sustainability,
practicality and public acceptability. For multi-modal studies
this should also include impacts on 10 Year Plan targets.
The Final Appraisal
Summary
1.6.6
For each strategy or plan option, there will,
at this stage, exist up to seven single sheets which summarise
various aspects of the appraisal, as follows:
- an annotated map describing the strategy or plan option;
- possibly a separate sheet listing the alternatives considered
and their reasons for rejection (if this information cannot
be fitted onto the previous sheet);
- an AST for Central Government's objectives;
- a summary of the achievement of local and regional objectives;
- a map showing the changes in the do-minimum problems
which would be brought about by the strategy or plan option
(backed by two maps showing the problems in the base year
and in the horizon year on the do-minimum network, which
are, of course, common to all options); and
- a summary of the main points from the Supporting Analyses.
In addition, there will also be worksheets for each sub-objective
on the Central Government AST, though these may not be provided
for the assessor unless requested.
1.6.7
It may be that the assessor (Steering Group members)
can cope with this level of information and that no further
distillation is necessary. If further distillation is required,
it is suggested that the following steps are taken:
- delete that information in the summary of achievement
of the local and regional objectives which adds little or
nothing to the comparable information in the AST for Central
Government's objectives; and
- delete any information from the Supporting Analyses which
are not central to the appraisal.
1.6.8 Judgement will play a clear role in this distillation process. The original summary sheets and worksheets should always be retained so that other people can judge the distillation process for themselves.
2. Further Information
The following documents provide information that follows on drectly from the key topics covered in this TAG Unit.
|
For information on: |
See: |
TAG Unit number: |
| Setting objectives |
Objectives and Problems |
TAG
Unit 2.2 |
| Models used in transport appraisal |
Modelling |
TAG
Unit 3.1 |
| Appraising against the Government's
5 objectives for transport |
The Environment Objective
The Safety Objective
The Economy Objective
The Accessibility Objective
The Integration Objective |
TAG
Unit 3.3
TAG Unit
3.4
TAG Unit
3.5
TAG
Unit 3.6
TAG
Unit 3.7 |
| The appraisal process |
The Overall Approach: The Steps in the Process
Appraisal |
TAG
Unit 2.1
TAG Unit 3.2 |
| The Appraisal Summary Table |
Transport Appraisal and the New Green Book |
TAG
Unit 2.7 |
| Strategic Environmental Assessment |
Strategic Environmental Assessment for Transport Plans and Programmes |
TAG
Unit 2.11 |
| The economic elements of transport
appraisal (including transport economy efficiency, TEE tables) |
The Economy Objective |
TAG
Unit 3.5 |
Completing the Affordability and Financial
Sustainability (AFS) Tables
Treatment of 10 Year Plan Targets in Multi-Modal Study Recommendations |
Supporting Analysis |
TAG
Unit 3.8 |
| The impact if the revised Green Book
on TAG |
Transport Appraisal and the New Green Book |
TAG
Unit 2.7 |
3. References
DETR (July 1998a) A New Deal for Trunk Roads in England
DETR (July 1998b) A New Deal for Transport: Better for Everyone
DETR (2000) Guidance on the Methodology for Multi-Modal Studies
Highways Agency Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (DMRB)
H.M. Treasury (January 2003) Green Book
4. Document Provenance
This Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG) Unit is based on
Chapter 6 of Guidance on the Methodology for Multi-Modal Studies Volume
1 (DETR, 2000), updated to take account of H.M. Treasury (January
2003) Green Book.
Technical queries and comments on this TAG Unit should be referred to:
Integrated Transport Economics and Appraisal (ITEA) Division
Department for Transport
Zone 3/08 Great Minster House
76 Marsham Street
London
SW1P 4DR
itea@dft.gsi.gov.uk
Tel 020 7944 6176
Fax 020 7944 2198
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